Baxia Markets News

Resistance Test: EUR/USD Challenges Former Support in Bearish Landscape

Written by Baxia Markets | Jan 30, 2024 8:30:00 AM

The EUR/USD currency pair braces for a tumultuous day as economic indicators from both the European Union and the United States come into play. Investors don their analytical lenses, dissecting the potential impact of GDP reports and other key data on the forex landscape.

 

Today's spotlight shines on the European Union as it unveils its GDP report. Economist forecasts, revealing stagnant yearly growth at 0.0%, paint a potentially bleak future for the EUR/USD. Any deviation from this forecast, especially in the negative quarter growth metric, may sway market sentiments.

As the day unfolds, attention shifts to the US, with releases on Consumer Confidence and JOLTs Job Openings. The forecasted uptick in consumer confidence to 115.0 and a slight dip in job openings to 8.750M may introduce a mixed dynamic into the trading session. Traders await these cues for potential shifts in EUR/USD's recent bearish trajectory.

 

On the 1-hour timeframe chart, EUR/USD finds itself at a critical juncture after breaching the key support at 1.0848. The pair is now testing the erstwhile support turned resistance, and the outcome of the EU GDP report may chart its course. A failure to breach this level could signal a continuation of the bearish rally.

 

 glance at the EMA 50 and 200 reveals a growing divergence, signaling the expansion of bearish momentum. The widening gap between these moving averages hints at sustained downward pressure on EUR/USD, contributing to the prevailing bearish sentiment.

 

Both the MACD and RSI oscillators amplify the bearish narrative. MACD's signal line and histogram linger below the 0 line, underlining the bearish momentum. Similarly, the RSI struggles below the 50% mark, failing to breach the 60% threshold in the last 24 hours, emphasizing the ongoing bearish pressure.

 

As the day unfolds with economic data cascading from both sides of the Atlantic, the EUR/USD pair finds itself at the mercy of economic indicators. Traders tread cautiously, awaiting cues that could either validate the bearish course or provide a respite amid the tumultuous currents of the forex market.

 

Key Takeaways: EUR/USD Navigates Economic Crosswinds

  1. EU GDP Holds the Reins: The awaited EU GDP report takes center stage, with stagnant yearly growth forecasted at 0.0%. A deviation from this forecast, especially in negative quarter growth, may sway the EUR/USD landscape.

  2. US Economic Indicators Diverge: US economic releases on Consumer Confidence and JOLTs Job Openings introduce a mixed dynamic. Traders monitor these indicators for potential shifts in the pair's recent bearish trajectory.

  3. Critical Juncture at Resistance: EUR/USD, post-breaking the key support at 1.0848, faces a critical test at the former support turned resistance. The outcome of the EU GDP report holds the key to determining whether the bearish rally will continue.

  4. EMA Divergence Signals Momentum: The EMA 50 and 200 exhibit growing divergence, signaling an expansion of bearish momentum. The widening gap between these moving averages reinforces the prevailing bearish sentiment.

  5. Oscillators Echo Bearish Sentiment: MACD and RSI oscillators amplify the bearish narrative. MACD remains below the 0 line, while RSI struggles under the 50% mark, underscoring the persistent bearish pressure on EUR/USD.

Key Economic Releases to Watch Today

EUR, GDP (YoY) (Q4)

Forecast 0.0% vs Previous 0.0%

EUR, GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

Forecast -0.1% vs Previous -0.1%

USD,  CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)

Forecast 115.0 vs Previous 110.7

USD,  JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)

Forecast 8.750M vs Previous -0.1%

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