USD/CAD is currently hovering around 1.3710 in early Asian trading on Thursday, marking a reversal from its recent downtrend. The US Dollar's rebound, however, faces resistance amid tempered expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, triggered by disappointing US Retail Sales data for May.
Investor attention remains fixated on upcoming US economic indicators, including Initial Jobless Claims, Building Permits, Housing Starts, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and speeches by Fed officials later today. A positive outcome in Initial Jobless Claims could bolster the US Dollar and potentially restrict losses for USD/CAD.
From a technical standpoint, on the 1-hour timeframe, USD/CAD is characterized by a clear descending channel. The market is currently positioned below the cloud, with the EMA indicators showing a death cross pattern, indicative of sustained bearish sentiment. Notably, multiple bearish engulfing candlestick patterns have emerged, with the latest setting a key resistance level at 1.3725, coinciding with the EMA 200 and the lower boundary of the value area zone marked in pink.
Today's market sentiment leans slightly bullish as USD/CAD tests the aforementioned resistance level. However, the prevailing bearish pressure suggests a potential weakening of the US Dollar, particularly if today's US economic data falls short of expectations or presents a mixed outlook. Both MACD and RSI indicators corroborate the bearish outlook, underscoring the current strength of selling pressure on the USD.
In summary, the movements of USD/CAD are heavily influenced by contrasting monetary policy expectations between the Fed and the Bank of Canada, alongside pivotal US economic data releases that dictate market sentiment. Traders are advised to monitor technical signals and economic updates closely for further insights into the pair's trajectory.
| Time (GMT) | Currency | Event | Importance | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:45 | NZD | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | High | 0.2% | 0% | -0.1% |
| NZD | GDP Growth Rate YoY | Medium | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.3% | |
| 08:15 | CNY | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | Medium | 3.95% | 3.95% | 3.95% |
| CNY | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | Medium | 3.45% | 3.45% | 3.45% | |
| 13:00 | EUR | New Car Registrations YoY | Medium | -3% | 13.7% | |
| CHF | Balance of Trade | Medium | CHF4.1B | CHF3.7B | CHF3.9B | |
| EUR | PPI YoY | Medium | -2.2% | -2% | -3.3% | |
| 14:00 | EUR | ECB General Council Meeting | Medium | |||
| 14:30 | CHF | SNB Interest Rate Decision | High | 1.25% | 1.25% | 1.5% |
| 17:00 | EUR | Consumer Confidence | Medium | 89 | 84.5 | |
| 18:00 | GBP | BoE MPC Vote Cut | High | 7/9 | 2/9 | |
| GBP | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | High | 7/9 | 7/9 | ||
| GBP | BoE MPC Vote Hike | High | 0/9 | 0/9 | ||
| GBP | MPC Meeting Minutes | High | ||||
| GBP | BoE Interest Rate Decision | High | 5.25% | 5.25% | ||
| 19:30 | CAD | New Housing Price Index MoM | Medium | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| CAD | New Housing Price Index YoY | Medium | 0.1% | -0.1% | ||
| USD | Current Account | Medium | $-206.4B | $-194.8B | ||
| USD | Building Permits MoM Prel | Medium | 2% | -3% | ||
| USD | Building Permits Prel | Medium | 1.45M | 1.44M | ||
| USD | Housing Starts MoM | Medium | 2.2% | 5.7% | ||
| USD | Housing Starts | Medium | 1.37M | 1.36M | ||
| USD | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | Medium | 5 | 4.5 | ||
| USD | Initial Jobless Claims | High | 235K | 242K | ||
| 21:00 | EUR | Consumer Confidence Flash | Medium | -13.6 | -14.3 | |
| 22:00 | USD | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Medium | 1.1M | 2.566M | |
| USD | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | Medium | -2M | 3.73M |
This table organizes the economic events by time, currency, event description, importance, and
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