USDCAD experienced a downturn following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain its interest rate at 5%, coupled with Fed Chair Powell's dismissal of further rate hikes speculation. Meanwhile, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem hinted at potential interest rate cuts, citing declining inflation and public anticipation.
In economic analysis, forecasts for USD Initial Jobless Claims and Factory Orders indicated modest changes, while CAD Trade Balance was expected to decline. BoC Governor Macklem's remarks added to the market's anticipation of potential policy shifts in Canada.
Technically, on the 1-hour chart, USDCAD retained a bullish stance with EMA 50 above EMA 200. However, the bullish sentiment faced challenges as the market tested EMA 200 for support, with EMA 50 inching closer towards a potential death cross. Bearish signals were reinforced by MACD's deep signal line below 0 and RSI's descent into bearish territory.
Critical support levels include the 61.8% retracement and 1.3643, within the value area of the volume profile. The outcome of today's CAD data could further impact the currency pair, potentially strengthening CAD against USD.
Forecast 49.9 vs Previous 51.9
Forecast 1.10B vs Previous 1.39B
Forecast 1.6% vs Previous 1.4%
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