XAUUSD has established an uptrend channel, currently testing its lower boundary amidst recent Federal Reserve decisions. The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%, in line with expectations, and revised down their anticipated rate cuts for the year. This lower boundary of the ascending channel represents a critical support level whose integrity will be closely monitored. Additionally, the Ichimoku cloud serves as another pivotal support level.
Today's economic focal points include initial jobless claims and Producer Price Index (PPI). Should these indicators surpass expectations, there is a risk of breaking the uptrend channel, potentially triggering a pronounced bearish response.
On the 1-hour timeframe, sentiment leans slightly bearish, aligned with medium to long-term indicators that maintain a bearish outlook. The EMA 50 remains positioned above the EMA 200, indicative of ongoing downward pressure. Key technical lines including Chikou Span, Kijun Sen, and Tenkan Sen are all positioned below the cloud, lacking a cross-over confirmation. A significant shift, such as a golden cross on the EMA or a bullish cross of these lines over the cloud, would be required to suggest a reversal in sentiment.
Recent trading has seen XAUUSD consolidate over the past four sessions, retracing the range from June 7th. Oscillator indicators have shown volatility, oscillating frequently between bullish and bearish signals, notably highlighted by the MACD indicator.
In conclusion, XAUUSD's current dynamics suggest a critical juncture as it tests the lower boundary of its uptrend channel amidst key economic releases and technical indicator alignments. Traders are advised to monitor support levels closely for potential breaks that could signal further downside momentum, particularly in response to economic data exceeding expectations. Confirmation from technical indicators such as EMAs and Ichimoku cloud crosses will provide clearer signals of potential market direction shifts.
Forecast 225K vs Previous 229K
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