In a Twitter update on Thursday, PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow family of BTC price models, cast fresh doubt on a Bitcoin bear move. His recent prediction of a minimum monthly close for August-exactly matches current prices — and if the remaining four are just as accurate, Bitcoin could end 2021 at $135,000. Stock-to-flow’s first incarnation demands an average BTC price of $100,000 this halving cycle, but May’s about-turn gave its time-tested precision a run for its money.
PlanB has nonetheless stuck by it, arguing that it has not yet been invalidated and that there are no proven better alternatives. One such alternative model, which now appears unlikely to come true, is the logarithmic “diminishing returns'' chart originally produced by Bitcointalk forum user Trololo in 2014. An adjusted version calculates just $30,000 for BTC/USD at the end of this year, something that PlanB believes is less likely than stock-to-flow $100,000. Again, with Bitcoin’s volatile nature and uncertainty, its next month’s performance might be a deciding factor on how the digital coin will look by the end of the year.
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