Baxia Markets
July 14, 2021

What To Expect From Australian Employment?

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Later today there is some important data being released from Australia. Today we see the release of both Australian Employment Change and Australian Unemployment Rate. Set your alarms because this is important.


01:30AM (GMT) - AUD Employment Change

01:30AM (GMT) - AUD Unemployment Rate



What do we mean by Employment Change & Unemployment Rate? 


The employment change measures the change of a country's employment. A negative release means the jobs that were lost were more than gained. On the contrary, more jobs were gained when the release shows a positive figure. In Australia, estimates include both part-time and full-time jobs, and it covers works for pay or profit, or unpaid family work. 


On the other hand, the unemployment rate is the percent of people who are able to work that do not have a job. When the economy is in decline and jobs are less available, the unemployment rate is expected to go up. When the economy is growing and jobs are available and being created, it can be expected for the unemployment rate to go down. 



What are the expectations for the Australian Employment Change & Unemployment Rate?


Australian Employment is expected to gain 19.7k in June, a small fraction of the 115k jobs added in May. The employment change numbers have been positive for several months but it seems we are past the peak.

On the other hand, Australian Unemployment Rate previously in June 2021 was at 5.1%. The expectation for July 2021 is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.1%. Will that be the case?



Professional Insight


Economists expect the unemployment rate to remain flat at 5.1 percent for June 2021. The participation rate is also expected to stay flat at 66.2 percent. It is also predicted around 20,000 jobs will have been created during the month of June.

These are good insights given to us by Australian economists. The general view is that the country is still in recovery. The good news is that there is no continued increase in the unemployment rate. 



What happens if...


We get a number that is higher than expected? This could be a signal for a thriving economy given the circumstances. People would be more confident in the markets, both equities and foreign exchange. As people are getting more jobs you can expect to see a rise in spending, spurring the economy. This will mean that AUD may increase in value relatively versus other currencies.


Regarding the unemployment rate, what happens if we see a number higher than 5.1%? If that is the case we can expect the Australian Dollar to depreciate as a higher unemployment rate signals a weakening economy. 


What happens if...


We see the Employment Change come out lower than expected? Markets will likely shrink because people could get nervous about losing jobs, meaning people will be unwilling to spend money and instead save for a rainy day. The AUD may decrease in value relatively versus other currencies.


Regarding the unemployment rate, what happens if we see a number lower than 5.1%? If that is the case we can expect the Australian Dollar to appreciate as a lower unemployment rate signals a strengthening economy. 



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