The AUDUSD currency pair has taken a sharp turn lower today, shedding over 50 pips from its intraday high of 0.6698. This sudden drop can be attributed to the release of weaker-than-expected Australian current account deficit data. The actual deficit figure came in at -4.9 billion AUD, significantly worse than the forecast of -5.6 billion AUD. This negative surprise has dampened investor sentiment towards the Aussie dollar.
The focus now shifts to the upcoming US economic data releases during the US trading session, with factory orders and JOLTs job openings data on the docket. Economists have mixed forecasts for these data points. A stronger-than-anticipated outcome on either data set could exert further downward pressure on AUDUSD.
From a technical perspective, the 1-hour chart paints a concerning picture for AUD bears. Over the past 9 hours, the price has sliced decisively below the key 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), a strong indicator of potential bearish momentum. The next crucial support level to watch is the Ichimoku cloud. A decisive break beneath the cloud could provide a strong confirmation of a bearish reversal.
However, it's important to note that the Ichimoku indicator currently remains bullish, albeit with some signs of weakness. The Kijun sen, Tenkan sen, and Chikou Span lines haven't yet crossed below the cloud, suggesting that the overall uptrend is still intact but facing headwinds.
The RSI oscillator has dipped into bearish territory, falling below the 40% level. This suggests that the selling pressure is intensifying. The MACD indicator is also poised to turn bearish, which occurs when the signal line crosses below the zero line. A bearish MACD crossover would further reinforce the bearish bias.
Overall, the AUDUSD price action is currently in a precarious position. The disappointing Australian data has triggered a sell-off, and the upcoming US data releases hold the potential to exacerbate the bearish pressure. A break below the Ichimoku cloud would be a significant technical development, potentially ushering in a period of sustained weakness for the AUDUSD pair. However, if the US data disappoints and the price manages to reclaim the 200-EMA, the bulls could regain control. Traders should closely monitor the upcoming data releases and the price action around the Ichimoku cloud for further cues on the AUDUSD's next move.
Actual -4.9B vs Forecast 5.6B vs Previous 2.7B
Actual 0.1% vs Forecast 0.1% vs Previous -0.4%
Forecast 0.7% vs Previous 0.6%
Forecast 8.370M vs Previous 8.488M
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