Market Overview: Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has returned to yesterday's low following a notable 4% rally. This pullback is primarily attributed to the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates steady. The Fed has indicated the possibility of a rate cut later this year and further reductions in 2025. According to the latest economic projections, officials anticipate only one rate cut this year, a revision from the three cuts forecasted in March. Additionally, inflation is expected to be more persistent than previously thought.
1-Hour Time Frame: On the 1-hour chart, key technical indicators like the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and Ichimoku cloud have yet to confirm a bullish reversal for Bitcoin. Both indicators suggest a bearish outlook for the medium to long term. For a bullish confirmation from the Ichimoku cloud, we would need to see the Kijun Sen, Chikou Span, and Tenkan Sen lines crossing above the cloud. Similarly, for the EMA, a golden cross between the 50-period and 200-period EMAs would signal a bullish reversal. However, none of these confirmations have appeared as of now.
Key Levels: Support and resistance zones are defined by yesterday's high and low, indicating that the market is currently trading within yesterday's range, suggesting a ranging market. On a higher time frame, this scenario would likely produce an inside bar candlestick pattern, as highlighted by green and blue rectangles on the chart.
Economic Drivers: Today's key economic releases include initial jobless claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI) from the US. Economists are forecasting lower jobless claims and a lower PPI, although there is mixed sentiment on these predictions. If the actual data is worse than forecasted, it could be bullish for Bitcoin, potentially supporting the expectation of a rate cut by the end of the year.
Market Implications: If BTCUSD fails to break above the key resistance level, it could signal a bearish reversal, leading to further declines. Conversely, if the market can penetrate above this resistance, there is potential for Bitcoin to move higher, possibly reaching new all-time highs.
Conclusion: Bitcoin's near-term direction hinges on critical support and resistance levels and today's economic data releases. While the technical indicators have not confirmed a bullish reversal, market participants should closely monitor upcoming data and key levels for potential shifts in sentiment.
Forecast 225K vs Previous 229K
Forecast 0.1% vs Previous 0.5%
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