Meanwhile, the market is also closely monitoring high-impact news from the US, including Core Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, PPI, and Retail Sales. Economists predict a mix of signals, with only a slight increase in PPI (0.4% vs. 0.3%) as a positive forecast. In contrast, negative forecasts include a decline in Core Retail Sales (0.4% vs. 1%), an uptick in Initial Jobless Claims (225K vs. 216K), and reduced Retail Sales (0.2% vs. 0.7%). These varied forecasts may account for the recent modest bullish movement during the Thursday Asian trading session.
Starting from September 1, 2023, at 16:00 hours, the Ichimoku indicator signaled a bearish trend for EURUSD trading pairs. Several factors contribute to this bearish sentiment:
The Chikou span dipped below the price's low, highlighted within a red circle.
The price's close remained under the cloud, denoted by a blue circle.
The Tenkansen crossed below the Kijunsen line, as indicated by a green circle.
Presently, the Ichimoku indicator presents a mixed signal. The Chikou span intersected the candle's high, and the Tenkansen crossed over the Kijunsen line, both marked by purple circles. However, this does not signify a bullish reversal yet. To confirm a shift in the market sentiment, additional criteria must be met, including a price close above the cloud.
Ultimately, a true turnaround would necessitate substantial volatility driven by robust EU news and a mix of, preferably negative, results from the US. These conditions could potentially break the key resistance zone at 1.09126-1.09455 (highlighted in a yellow rectangle). Key support zone to watch is at 1.06378-1.07052 (highlighted in a blue rectangle). As of now, EURUSD is in a bearish correction phase.
Today Key Economic Releases to Watch
ECB Deposit Facility Rate
forecast 3.75% vs 3.75%
ECB Interest Rate Decision
forecast 4.25% vs 4.25%
US Core Retail Sales
forecast 0.4% vs 1%
US Initial Jobless Claim
forecast 225K vs 216K
forecast 0.4% vs 0.3%
US Retail Sales
forecast 0.2% vs 0.7%
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