Baxia Markets
July 02, 2024

Gold Consolidates in 200-Pip Range Amid Mixed Signals

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Technical Overview: XAUUSD (Gold) is currently consolidating within a 200-pip range, showing mixed signals. The lower boundary of this range, supported by a Fair Value Gap (FVG) highlighted in green, suggests potential bullish support. Candlesticks near this support level feature long lower wicks, indicating a lack of strong bearish interest at this level. However, bearish pressure is evident at the top of the range, as indicated by larger bearish candlesticks and several bearish engulfing patterns, suggesting a stronger bearish sentiment at the upper boundary.


Key Technical Indicators:

  • FVG Support: The FVG provides a significant support zone, but failure to hold could lead to a test of the recent swing low at $2296.
  • MACD: The MACD signal line and histogram have crossed below the zero line, indicating a bearish momentum shift.
  • RSI: The RSI has dipped below the 40% level, reinforcing the bearish sentiment for the short to medium term.
  • EMA 50 & 200: A potential death cross (EMA 50 crossing below EMA 200) would confirm a stronger bearish reversal if the market breaks key support levels.

Resistance and Support Levels:

  • Resistance: The top of the consolidation range, marked by recent bearish candlesticks and engulfing patterns.
  • Support: The FVG zone near $2296, which is crucial for maintaining bullish prospects.

Economic News Impacting XAUUSD:

Gold prices are being influenced by broader economic factors, including recent data and central bank activities. The Federal Reserve's recent dovish comments have provided some support for gold, but this has been counterbalanced by persistent inflation concerns and fluctuating U.S. Treasury yields. The upcoming speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to provide further insights into the Fed's monetary policy direction, which will likely impact gold prices significantly.

Key Takeaways

Technical Analysis:

  • Consolidation Range: XAUUSD is consolidating in a 200-pip range, with key support from FVG and resistance marked by bearish candlesticks.
  • Bearish Indicators: MACD and RSI are indicating bearish momentum.
  • Watch for Breakout: A break below FVG support or the formation of a death cross on EMAs will confirm bearish continuation.

Economic News:

  • Fed Chair Powell's Speech: Key upcoming event likely to influence gold prices, providing clues on future monetary policy.
  • Inflation Concerns: Ongoing inflation and economic data continue to impact gold's short-term movements.


Gold's current consolidation phase within a defined range shows mixed signals, with technical indicators leaning towards bearish momentum. Economic events, particularly Fed communications, will play a crucial role in determining the next significant move for XAUUSD. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels closely for potential breakout signals.


Key Economic Releases to Watch Today

Time Currency Event Impact Actual Forecast Previous
08:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes High      
16:00 EUR Unemployment Rate High 6.4% 6.4% 6.4%
  EUR Inflation Rate MoM Flash High 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
  EUR Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash High 2.9% 2.8% 2.9%
  EUR Inflation Rate YoY Flash High 2.5% 2.5% 2.6%
  EUR CPI Flash High 126.58 126.6 126.31
20:30 USD Fed Chair Powell Speech High      
21:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings High 7.91M 8.059M  


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