Baxia Markets
July 02, 2024

AUDUSD Technical Analysis: Bullish Momentum Grows Amid Key Economic Data

market analysis header image

Overview: AUD/USD is advancing during the European trading session, aiming to break above last week's high, a key resistance level. This level, highlighted in orange, was previously confirmed by bearish engulfing candlesticks. A successful breakout and sustained momentum above this level could trigger aggressive buying from bullish traders.


Key Technical Indicators:

  1. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Support: The market rebounded near the end of the Asian session, supported by the FVG at the lower side. A hammer candlestick appeared at this level, indicating that the FVG is likely to hold, enhancing bullish prospects.

  2. Ichimoku Indicator: On the 1-hour chart, the Ichimoku indicator shows a strong bullish sentiment with the Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen, and Chikou Span positioned above the cloud.

  3. Volume Profile: The Point of Control (POC), representing the price level with the highest traded volume, is below the current price, which is also above the value area. This suggests a strong bullish sentiment.

  4. MACD and RSI:

    • The MACD histogram is ascending and has crossed the signal line, with both lines pointing towards the zero line, indicating bullish momentum.

    • The RSI is above the 40% level and has maintained this position since last Thursday, further confirming the bullish trend.

Resistance and Support Levels:

  • Resistance: The upper side of the value area, EMA 200, and the upper FVG are key resistance levels to watch. A breakout above any of these levels today will confirm a continuation of the bullish trend.

  • Support: Key support is highlighted in a green rectangle, confirmed by two bullish engulfing candlesticks. This zone is critical for maintaining the bullish momentum.

Fundamental Context: Today's economic news release, specifically the RBA Meeting Minutes, met market expectations, leading to a rebound in AUD/USD near the end of the Asian session. This reaction underscores the market's sensitivity to key economic data and its potential impact on trading sentiment​


Conclusion: The AUD/USD pair is poised for potential further gains if it can break above the key resistance levels highlighted. The technical indicators suggest that the bullish momentum is still in its early stages, indicating room for further upside in the coming days. Traders should watch for a sustained breakout to capitalize on the ongoing bullish trend.


Key Economic Releases to Watch Today
Time Currency Event Impact Actual Forecast Previous
08:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes High      
16:00 EUR Unemployment Rate High 6.4% 6.4% 6.4%
  EUR Inflation Rate MoM Flash High 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
  EUR Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash High 2.9% 2.8% 2.9%
  EUR Inflation Rate YoY Flash High 2.5% 2.5% 2.6%
  EUR CPI Flash High 126.58 126.6 126.31
20:30 USD Fed Chair Powell Speech High      
21:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings High 7.91M 8.059M  


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