Baxia Markets
June 25, 2024

Gold Dips as Market Awaits Key US Economic Data

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Gold Prices Lower Amid Cautious Market Mood and Awaited Economic Data

Gold traded about a third of a percent lower on Tuesday, remaining range-bound as investors await fresh macroeconomic and political news. The market's cautious mood is reflected in the price action.image-png-Jun-25-2024-03-28-17-7341-PM


Key Economic Focus

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for May, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released on Friday and is of significant interest. Additionally, speeches from Fed members Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman on Tuesday could provide further insights into the US interest rate trajectory, a crucial factor for Gold as it influences the opportunity cost of holding this non-yielding asset.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated on Monday that she does not believe the Fed should cut rates until inflation is clearly moving towards the 2% target. Daly also mentioned that if unemployment continues to rise, the Fed could cut rates to support demand and the labor market.


Technical Analysis

In the past two days, Gold (XAU/USD) has traded within a range following a bearish close last Friday. Two Engulfing candlestick patterns appeared at the edge of the cloud, confirming strong resistance near the Ichimoku cloud. Prices are currently trading below the cloud, along with the Chikou Span, Kijun Sen, and Tenkan Sen lines.

The recent formation of a death cross between the EMA 50 and EMA 200 further supports a bearish outlook. Additional bearish confirmation would come if prices break below the low of the value area (indicated by pink horizontal lines).


Key Economic Releases to Watch Today

Time Currency Event Impact Actual Forecast Previous
07:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index Medium 83.6 82 82.2
07:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change High 1.7% -0.1% -0.3%
14:00 EUR GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Medium 0.8% 0.7% 0.7%
14:00 EUR GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Medium 2.5% 2.4% 2.1%
18:00 USD Fed Bowman Speech Medium      
19:30 CAD Core Inflation Rate MoM High 0.6% 0.2% 0.2%
19:30 CAD CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY High 2.9% 2.8% 2.9%
19:30 CAD CPI Median YoY High 2.8% 2.6% 2.6%
19:30 CAD Inflation Rate YoY High 2.9% 2.6% 2.7%
19:30 CAD Inflation Rate MoM High 0.6% 0.3% 0.5%
19:30 CAD Core Inflation Rate YoY High 1.8% 1.6% 1.6%
20:00 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index Medium 0.18 -0.4 -0.23
20:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY Medium 7.2% 6.9% 7.5%
20:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM Medium 1.4% 1.1% 1.6%
21:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence High 100.4 100 102
23:00 USD Fed Cook Speech Medium      


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