The USDCAD is showing signs of strength following a significant flash dip that created a long wick at the recent swing low. Yesterday's candlestick formed a hammer, a bullish reversal candlestick pattern, reinforcing the swing low as a major support level. This hammer candlestick, which spanned 60 pips, indicates a potential shift in market sentiment. Today, the market continues its rebound, targeting yesterday's high and aiming for the 200-day EMA.
Despite the overall bearish trend, the market is currently experiencing a pullback. The 50-day EMA is converging towards the 200-day EMA, signaling a reduction in bearish momentum as the gap between the two moving averages narrows. This convergence often suggests that the market may be preparing for a reversal or at least a temporary pause in the prevailing trend.
The Ichimoku indicator provides further insights into this potential pullback. The Tenkan-sen line has crossed above the Kijun-sen line, a typical signal of a bearish pullback. This crossover supports the notion that the market is in a corrective phase rather than continuing its downward trajectory. Key resistance levels to watch include the 200-day EMA and the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud.
Additionally, oscillator indicators have moved into bullish territory. The MACD signal line has crossed above the zero line, indicating a potential shift in momentum. Furthermore, the RSI has broken above 60%, suggesting increased bullish pressure. These indicators collectively support the view that the USDCAD may continue its upward correction in the near term, despite the overarching bearish trend.
In summary, while the broader market trend for USDCAD remains bearish, several technical indicators suggest a pullback is underway. Key resistance levels, such as the 200-day EMA and the upper Ichimoku cloud, will be critical in determining whether this rebound has the strength to continue or if the bearish trend will resume.
| Time | Currency | Event | Impact | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:35 | AUD | RBA Kent Speech | Medium | |||
| 08:30 | AUD | Monthly CPI Indicator | High | 4% | 3.8% | 3.6% |
| 13:00 | EUR | GfK Consumer Confidence | High | -21.8 | -18.9 | -20.9 |
| 13:45 | EUR | Consumer Confidence | Medium | 89 | 89 | 90 |
| 17:00 | EUR | Unemployment Benefit Claims | Medium | -17K | -36.8K | |
| 17:00 | GBP | CBI Distributive Trades | Medium | 1 | 8 | |
| 19:00 | USD | Building Permits Final | Medium | 1.386M | 1.44M | |
| 19:00 | USD | Building Permits MoM Final | Medium | -3.8% | -3% | |
| 21:00 | USD | New Home Sales | Medium | 0.64M | 0.634M | |
| 21:00 | USD | New Home Sales MoM | Medium | 2.9% | -4.7% | |
| 21:30 | USD | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Medium | -1.1M | -2.28M | |
| 21:30 | USD | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | Medium | -3M | -2.547M |
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