Over today's Asian and European trading sessions, XAGUSD witnessed a significant break below the volume profile value area at $22.65. Despite a brief rebound following the break, the market is currently testing the previous swing high, with key resistance identified at $22.76 (blue rectangle).
The EMA 50 and 200 are on the verge of forming a death cross, a bearish reversal confirmation. To invalidate this signal, prices must breach above the upper bound of the value area at $23.06 and the descending trendline.
Despite the recent four-day bearish rally, the slope remains gradual, indicating potentially weaker bearish pressure. A death cross on the EMA 50 and 200 may therefore provide a false signal unless accompanied by significant bearish candlestick patterns or Marubozu candles. The Fibonacci retracement suggests XAG/USD may establish a new low at the 61.8% retracement level before finding support or rebounding.
Oscillator indicators further support the bearish sentiment, with both the MACD and RSI signaling downwards. The MACD's signal line resides below the 0 line, while the RSI remains trapped below the 60% level. This indicates potential momentum for prices to reach the 61.8% retracement level, with the RSI likely to become overbought at this point.
Forecast -0.2% vs Previous -0.4%
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
Nothing contained in this website should be construed as investment advice. Any reference to an investment's past or potential performance is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation or as a guarantee of any specific outcome or profit.
