Baxia Markets
May 27, 2024

EURCAD Eyes Key Resistance Despite Weak German Data

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Last week, EURCAD experienced a notable decline, falling 70 pips from its high of 1.48828. Today, the market found support at the Ichimoku cloud and staged a rebound, providing a glimmer of hope for bulls. 

Today's economic focus was on several German data releases, including the German Business Expectations, German Current Assessment, and the German Ifo Business Climate Index. Despite these data points coming in lower than forecasted, the market reacted with a rebound, indicating a complex interplay of factors influencing EURCAD.EURCAD Eyes Key Resistance Despite Weak German Data

On the 1-hour timeframe, key resistance is identified at the previous swing high of 1.48828, which was yesterday's high. Key support is noted at the recent swing low of 1.48115, providing critical levels for traders to watch.

Technically, the medium to long-term sentiment remains bullish. The EMA 50 is positioned above the EMA 200, signaling continued bullish momentum. Furthermore, the Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen, and Chikou Span lines are all above the Ichimoku cloud, reinforcing this bullish outlook. However, caution is warranted as oscillator indicators are showing bearish signals. The RSI has dipped into bearish territory, breaking below the 40% level, and the MACD has also entered bearish territory, sinking below the zero line. Additionally, the Ichimoku cloud is thinning, suggesting that bullish momentum is slowing. The EMA 50 bending towards the EMA 200 further confirms this slowdown.

Overall, EURCAD appears to be in the early stages of a potential trend reversal. A confirmation of a bearish reversal would require a break below the key support level at the EMA 200, coupled with an oversold RSI. Traders should monitor these levels closely, as they will be crucial in determining the pair's next move.

Key Takeaways

  1. EURCAD fell 70 pips last week, finding support at the Ichimoku cloud.
  2. German economic data underperformed, yet EURCAD rebounded.
  3. Key resistance at 1.48828; support at 1.48115 on the 1-hour timeframe.
  4. EMA 50 above EMA 200 indicates medium to long-term bullish sentiment.
  5. Oscillators (RSI, MACD) show bearish signals, suggesting a potential trend reversal.

Key Economic Releases to Watch Today

EUR, German Business Expectations

 Actual 90.4 vs Forecast 90.5 vs Previous 89.9

EUR, German Current Assessment

Actual 88.3 vs Forecast -89.9 vs Previous 88.9

EUR, German Ifo Business Climate Index

Actual 89.3 vs Forecast 90.4 vs Previous 89.4




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