During the Asian trading session, the AUDUSD pair experienced positive momentum despite the release of weaker-than-expected retail sales data, which came in at 0.1% versus the forecasted 0.3%. This unexpected market reaction drove the pair higher, surpassing yesterday's high. However, during the European trading session, the market saw a pullback from today's peak.
On the 1-hour time frame, the technical indicators present a nuanced picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached the overbought zone earlier today and has since made a pullback. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signal line and histogram are positioned above the zero line, indicating a bullish trend. However, the histogram crossing below the signal line suggests a pullback is underway, aligning with the RSI's movement after hitting the overbought zone.
A significant technical development is the appearance of a golden cross on the Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), with the EMA 50 crossing above the EMA 200, confirming a bullish reversal. Additionally, the Ichimoku indicators—Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen, and Chikou Span—are all positioned above the cloud, reinforcing a strong bullish sentiment.
The key level of support to monitor is the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. A break below this level could negate the bullish reversal signal and suggest a potential shift in market sentiment.
Overall, the AUDUSD remains technically bullish but is currently experiencing a pullback. Traders should pay close attention to the support near or above the Ichimoku cloud to gauge the sustainability of the bullish trend.
Actual 0.1% vs Forecast 0.3% vs Previous -0.4%
Forecast 96.0 vs Previous 97.0
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