Baxia Markets
July 04, 2024

EURUSD Poised for Further Gains After 80-Pip Rally: Technical Analysis

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Technical Analysis: EUR/USD


The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a significant rally yesterday, surging over 80 pips. This bullish momentum has led to the development of a clear ascending trendline. Despite the rapid acceleration, the market is currently trending sideways to allow key moving averages, specifically the EMA 50 and EMA 200, to catch up to the trend. This sideways movement is indicative of a healthy market that needs a brief pause before continuing its upward trajectory.EURUSD Poised for Further Gains After 80-Pip Rally: Technical Analysis

Key Technical Indicators

  1. Ascending Trendline:

    • A clear ascending trendline has formed, providing support and indicating a strong upward momentum. The market is likely to push higher after testing this trendline.
  2. EMA 50 and EMA 200:

    • The market is currently in a consolidation phase to let the EMA 50 and EMA 200 catch up.
    • The EMA 50 is not pointing towards the EMA 200, which suggests that the bullish momentum remains strong. Typically, when the EMA 50 starts pointing towards the EMA 200, it indicates waning momentum. However, this is not the case currently, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
  3. Three White Soldiers Candlestick Pattern:

    • The appearance of the three white soldiers candlestick pattern during the US trading session yesterday is a strong bullish signal. This pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candlesticks, each closing higher than the previous, indicating sustained buying pressure.
    • It is common for the market to trend sideways after such a pattern, forming either a triangle or rectangle chart pattern, which suggests a short-term break or consolidation before making higher highs.
  4. Range Bound in Green Rectangles:

    • The current market action has plotted a clear range bound within two green rectangles.
    • A bullish EUR/USD should see the lower green rectangle respected by the market, serving as a support zone during this consolidation phase.
  5. Trading Above Value Area:

    • Prices are currently trading above the value area, which further suggests that traders are maintaining a bullish stance on the EUR/USD currency pair.


Overall, the EUR/USD is exhibiting strong bullish characteristics. The powerful rally, ascending trendline, and the three white soldiers candlestick pattern all support a continuation of the bullish trend. The consolidation phase is expected to be short-term, allowing key moving averages to align with the trend before pushing higher. Traders should watch for the lower green rectangle to hold as a support zone and for any signs of momentum waning, which currently are not present as indicated by the EMA 50 and EMA 200.

The technical indicators and market behavior suggest that the EUR/USD is likely to continue its upward trajectory after this brief consolidation period. Traders should remain optimistic but vigilant, keeping an eye on the ascending trendline and the value area for any potential shifts in momentum.

Key Economic Releases to Watch Today

Time Currency Event Impact Actual Forecast Previous
19:30 USD Unemployment Rate High   4% 4%
19:30 USD Non Farm Payrolls High   190K 272K
19:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings MoM High   0.3% 0.4%
19:30 CAD Unemployment Rate High   6.3% 6.2%
19:30 CAD Employment Change High   22.5K 26.7K
19:30 CAD Participation Rate High   65.4% 65.4%
21:00 CAD Ivey PMI s.a High   53 52


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