The US will release three high-impact economic indicators during the week's last session, bringing high volatility to USD pairs, particularly against other major FX currencies.
In the morning, the US will announce Retail Sales YoY for September; they are expected to drop from a previous 9.1% to 8%. Retail Sales MoM is also expected to fall; the analyst's consensus is at 0.2%; a figure higher than anticipated will bring higher value to the USD as it suggests that economic activity is solid. However, this week we have seen other indicators show that the US economy might be finally slowing down.
The US will also release Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The expert consensus is a slight increase from 58.6 to 59; a higher-than-expected figure will strengthen the USD exchange rate.
The NZD is gaining ground over the USD; the pair is on a three-day winning streak but continues to be on a general downtrend as the price is trading below the short and long-term moving averages.
The relative strength index is at 38%, which will allow the pair to continue moving upwards before entering an overbought status, a lot will depend on the results of the scheduled high-impact economic indicators, but based on pure technical analysis, the pair is likely to continue climbing.
The Bollinger bands are wide enough to expect high volatility in the short term; still, they are starting to shrink, suggesting that the pair might enter a consolidation period in the medium term. The bands are moving downwards, strengthening the sell signals in the short term.
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