Due to the worldwide pandemic, COVID-19, the price of cocoa had been going up since June 2020. Although the price has seen some fluctuations, the general trend is very clear. As can be seen, the price has started to make a downward trend since the start of 2021. Can we trust this trend in the long term?
Ghana is welcoming its biggest harvest of cocoa in the last decade. Ghana Cocoa Board has sold $2 billion of six-month bills between January and May, making it the most in the last decade. According to Bloomberg, who has been keeping record since 2011: ”Farmers harvested 965,493 metric tons by June 3, compared with a target of 900,000 tons for the whole crop year that ends in September. This places Ghana easily within the reach of the 1 million-ton mark, which was last attained in 2010-11.”
As we know, the price of cocoa is driven by supply and demand. The supply will increase in the coming months; is this a big enough reason to believe that the price will go down to meet a new balance in the near future?
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