Baxia Markets
March 01, 2024

Bullish or Bearish? EURUSD Analysis Post ISM Manufacturing PMI Data

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Amidst recent trading sessions, EURUSD has experienced a narrow range of about 50 pips, signaling a period of consolidation and indecision in the market.

Today, market participants are closely monitoring the release of the ISM manufacturing PMI data, with economists anticipating an improvement to a forecasted PMI of 49.5 compared to the previous 49.1. However, if the data aligns with expectations, EURUSD may encounter intensified bearish pressure.
A critical aspect to consider is the proximity of the EMA 50 and 200 to forming a death cross, a technical pattern indicative of a looming bearish trend. Currently, prices are positioned below both EMAs, with their convergence serving as a key resistance level. A decisive breakthrough above this level could signify the persistence of a bullish trend.

Furthermore, oscillator indicators provide additional insights, with both indicators pointing towards a bearish trajectory. The MACD signal line and histogram remain below the 0 line, indicating downward momentum, while the RSI struggles to surpass the 50 and 60% levels. A reversal of these indicators, with the RSI surpassing 60% and the MACD signal line returning above 0, could signify a resurgence of bullish sentiment and potential for new higher highs in the market.

In summary, EURUSD currently navigates a phase of consolidation amid economic data anticipation. Watchful attention to key resistance levels and oscillator indicators will be crucial in deciphering the potential direction of the pair in the near term.


Key Takeaways

1. EURUSD has been consolidating in a narrow range of about 50 pips over recent trading sessions.
2. Market attention is focused on the release of ISM manufacturing PMI data, with expectations of an improvement to 49.5 from the previous 49.1.
3. Proximity of the EMA 50 and 200 to forming a death cross suggests a potential shift to a bearish trend.
4. Current positioning of prices below both EMAs indicates a key resistance level, with a breakthrough signaling bullish momentum.
5. Oscillator indicators, including the MACD and RSI, indicate a bearish trajectory, but a reversal could signal a resurgence of bullish sentiment.

Key Economic Releases to Watch Today

US, S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

Forecast 51.5vs Previous 50.7

USD, ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

Forecast 49.5 vs Previous 49.1

US, ISM Manufacturing Prices (Feb) 

Forecast 53.5 vs Previous 52.9


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