Baxia Markets
October 05, 2022

EURUSD +1.70%

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The euro is gaining ground against the USD, and it is up 3.95% in the last five trading sessions. The pair is getting close to reaching parity, currently at 0.99831. High-impact economic indicators suggest that the US economy is finally slowing down.


The US released ISM Manufacturing PMI in the previous session; the result came short of expectations, which hurt the USD. This morning the US also announced JOLT Job Openings for August, which came out at 10.053M. Experts anticipated a higher figure by 772K. 


The labor market has been solid in the US in the last few months; however, there has been a notable economic deacceleration in the previous few days. This is an important week for the USD as they will announce S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI tomorrow, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. The last two indicators will gauge the strength of the US labor market in the previous month. 


Tomorrow, the Euro Area will release S&P Global Services PMI; the previous figure was 49.8, and experts anticipate a drop for September; the analyst consensus is 48.9, which suggests industry contraction, which could benefit the USD.


Later this week, the Euro Area will also release other high-impact economic indicators. Retail Sales MoM are expected to fall from -0.3% to -0.4%, while the Retail Sales YoY are expected to have a steeper decline from -0.9% to -1.7%, likely affecting the EURUSD exchange rate.


The general trend is currently upwards as the price is now above the short and long-term moving averages; the uptrend is likely to continue if the fundamental news releases are unfavorable for the US labor market. 



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The Bollinger bands are wide and starting to move upwards, suggesting that volatility will continue to be high and that the price will likely move upwards in the short term. The resistance at the parity level will be strong to beat from a psychological point of view. 


The relative strength index is at 55%, giving the EUR more than enough space to continue climbing before entering an overbought status. Our parabolic SAR indicator suggests that the price will continue to move upwards.


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