Baxia Markets
June 07, 2024

GBPUSD Coils Up Ahead of Key US Data Release

market analysis header image

The GBPUSD currency pair is currently trading sideways, exhibiting a coiling pattern that often forms before significant economic news releases. Today's market focus centers on the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings data from the United States. Economists generally predict an increase in both NFP and average hourly earnings compared to the previous report, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 3.9%.


Technical Analysis Suggests Bullish Bias

Examining the 1-hour time frame chart, both the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and Ichimoku indicators reveal a medium to long-term bullish sentiment. The EMA 50 positioned above the EMA 200 signifies ongoing strong sentiment and momentum, particularly with the wide gap between the two EMAs. The Ichimoku cloud also displays a bullish bias, with the Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen, and Chikou Span positioned above the cloud.image-png-Jun-07-2024-10-48-24-9314-AM


Oscillators Reflect Sideways Market

Given the coiling pattern, it's natural for oscillator indicators like the MACD and RSI to fluctuate between bullish and bearish zones. This doesn't necessarily imply a lack of reliability in these indicators, but rather reflects the current sideways market trend that has persisted over the past 3-4 days.


Potential Breakout on GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair's coiling pattern suggests a potential breakout on the horizon. The breakout direction will likely depend on the outcome of the US economic data releases. A strong NFP report could trigger a bullish breakout, while weaker-than-expected data might lead to a bearish breakout.


Traders Cautiously Await Data

Traders are advised to exercise caution until the US data is released. Close monitoring of price action around the symmetrical triangle's support and resistance levels is recommended. A breakout above resistance could signal a bullish continuation, while a break below support might indicate a bearish move.

Key Takeaways

  1. GBPUSD forms a symmetrical triangle, often a precursor to a breakout.
  2. Key US economic data releases, especially NFP, could trigger the breakout direction.
  3. Technical indicators (EMAs, Ichimoku) suggest a medium to long-term bullish bias for GBPUSD.
  4. Oscillators (MACD, RSI) reflect the current sideways market trend.
  5. Traders should monitor price action around the triangle's support and resistance levels.

Key Economic Releases to Watch Today

GBP, Halifax House Price Index 

Actual 1.5% vs Forecast 1.2% vs Previous 1.1%

GBP,  Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

Actual-0.1% vs Forecast 0.3% vs Previous 0.1%

EUR, German Industrial Production

Actual-0.1% vs Forecast0.1% vs Previous -0.4%

EUR, German Trade Balance

Actual 22.1B vs Forecast 22.6B vs Previous 22.2B


Forecast 0.3% vs Previous 0.0%    


Forecast 0.4% vs Previous 0.1%

USD, Average Hourly Earnings

Forecast 0.3% vs Previous 0.2%

USD,  Nonfarm Payrolls

Forecast 182K vs Previous 175K

USD, Unemployment Rate

Forecast 3.9% vs Previous 3.9%




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