Baxia Markets
January 25, 2024

Gold Dances with Data: Will US GDP Spark a Reversal?

market analysis header image

In the fast-paced realm of forex, gold (XAU/USD) takes center stage as traders brace for the unveiling of crucial US GDP figures. The economic landscape is poised for a rollercoaster ride as economists anticipate a significant slowdown in GDP growth, forecasting a modest 2.0% compared to the previous robust 4.9%.

Today's Asian trading session witnessed a market awakening to the lower GDP forecast, resulting in a bullish gap-up open. However, the key resistance level at $2020.60 continues to loom overhead, challenging the precious metal's ascent.
Bollinger Bands, the market's volatility barometer, reveal a contracting scenario, signaling a slowdown in volatility. This contraction, attributed to the anticipation of the US GDP release during the upcoming US trading hours, underscores the cautious sentiment among traders.

Diving into the technical realm, both MACD and RSI oscillators flash bearish signals. The MACD histogram and signal lines persist below the 0 line, echoing a bearish momentum. Concurrently, the RSI, having slipped below the 40% threshold 18 trading sessions ago, hovers beneath the 60% mark, reinforcing the prevailing bearish sentiment.

As XAU/USD treads the treacherous terrain, the overall outlook remains bearish. The impending US GDP data release serves as a potential catalyst, further fueling the bearish flames if the outcomes align with or exceed forecasts. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected GDP could offer a glimmer of hope for a bullish reversal.

Traders are advised to stay vigilant, carefully gauging the market's response to the economic data release. In the unpredictable world of forex, adaptability and quick decision-making are keys to navigating the storm.


Key Takeaways:

- Gold anticipates US GDP figures with a gap-up open.
- Key resistance at $2020.60 poses a challenge to bullish aspirations.
- Bollinger Bands signal a contraction in volatility ahead of the GDP release.
- MACD and RSI both point to a prevailing bearish trend.
- US GDP outcomes will dictate the metal's trajectory, offering potential opportunities for traders.

Key Economic Releases to Watch Today

EUR, Deposit Facility Rate (Jan)

Forecast 4.0% vs Previous 4.0%

EUR, ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan)

Forecast 4.50% vs Previous 4.50%

USD, Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)

Forecast 0.2% vs Previous 0.5%

USD, GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

Forecast 2.0% vs Previous 4.9%

USD, Initial Jobless Claims

Forecast 200K vs Previous 187K


News Article CTA - Trading with Baxia Markets 2024

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. 

Nothing contained in this website should be construed as investment advice. Any reference to an investment's past or potential performance is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation or as a guarantee of any specific outcome or profit.


Subscribe by Email