Baxia Markets
February 08, 2024

Sideways Trend Confusion: EMA Crosses and Divergences Complicate XAUUSD Outlook

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Amidst the intricate dance of market forces, XAUUSD finds itself at a critical juncture, grappling with the complexities of a deep bearish retracement. The precious metal has retraced a significant 50% of its recent downward move, signaling a profound pullback in market sentiment. 


Traders are closely monitoring the unfolding scenario as XAUUSD grapples with an ascending trendline during this retracement phase. However, recent price action has seen a decisive break below this trendline, raising concerns of a potential bearish trend continuation. 


Today's economic calendar brings forth crucial data in the form of Continuing Jobless Claims and Initial Jobless Claims. Expectations are optimistic for lower claims, fostering bullish sentiments for the USD against XAU (Gold). Yet, market dynamics remain uncertain, with outcomes poised to influence the trajectory of XAUUSD. 


The interplay between the EMA 50 and 200 adds another layer of complexity, with multiple instances of death crosses and golden crosses indicating a sideways trend lacking clear direction. 


Key level support stands firm at $2031, serving as a pivotal marker for potential bearish trend confirmation. A breach below this level could embolden bears and pave the way for further downside movement. 


Oscillator indicators paint a nuanced picture, revealing a bearish divergence as prices register higher highs amidst waning momentum. Both the MACD and RSI suggest a slowdown in bullish fervor, hinting at a possible shift in market dynamics. 


In essence, XAUUSD navigates a landscape fraught with uncertainty, balancing on the edge of a bearish correction. Traders tread cautiously, awaiting confirmation signals from key support breaks and economic news releases to decipher the market's next move. 


Key Takeaways:

  1. XAUUSD faces a pivotal moment as it grapples with a deep bearish retracement, having retraced 50% of its recent downward move.
  2. Recent price action saw a break below the ascending trendline during the retracement, signaling a potential bearish trend continuation.
  3. Today's economic releases, particularly Continuing and Initial Jobless Claims, carry significant weight, with expectations leaning towards lower claims favoring the USD against XAU (Gold).
  4. The relationship between the EMA 50 and 200 adds complexity, with multiple instances of death crosses and golden crosses suggesting a sideways trend lacking clear direction.
  5. Traders closely monitor key support at $2031, which, if breached, could embolden bears and signal further downside potential. Oscillator indicators hint at a bearish divergence, underscoring a potential shift in market momentum.

Key Economic Releases to Watch Today

USD, Continuing Jobless Claims    

Forecast 1,878K vs Previous 1.898K

USD, Initial Jobless Claims

Forecast 221K vs Previous 224K


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