Baxia Markets
April 10, 2024

USDCAD Treads Lightly Ahead of BoC Decision Amid Firmer USD and Oil Prices

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The USDCAD pair remains subdued amidst cautious trading sentiment ahead of the Bank of Canada's (BoC) policy decision. In early Wednesday Asian trading, the pair edged lower to around 1.3570. Despite a firmer US Dollar (USD) and rising crude oil prices, the pair struggles to find significant momentum. The USD maintains its strength despite lower US Treasury yields, influencing the USDCAD's movement.
USDCAD Treads Lightly Ahead of BoC Decision Amid Firmer USD and Oil Prices
Traders are eagerly awaiting the BoC's interest rate decision, widely expected to remain unchanged at 5.0%. Additionally, attention is on the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes later in the North American session.

Technical analysis indicates a mixed outlook for the USDCAD pair. While the short-term sentiment appears bullish, caution is warranted as the momentum is not robust. The narrowing distance between the EMA 50 and 200 suggests weakening momentum. Moreover, trading below the EMA 200 indicates potential vulnerability to the bullish narrative. Key support levels to monitor are around 1.3554, delineated by the lower boundary of the value area identified by the volume profile indicator.

The Bollinger band indicator reflects a sideways trend, with market oscillations between the upper and lower bands. A decisive move below the lower band may signal a bearish shift, while a breach above the upper band could indicate renewed bullish momentum. Oscillator indicators like the MACD, trading below the 0 line, and the RSI, hovering below the 40% level, suggest weak bearish pressure, but caution against overreliance on bullish sentiment.

In summary, the USDCAD pair exhibits cautious trading ahead of the BoC's decision amidst firmer USD and oil prices. Traders await key economic data releases later in the North American session for further direction.

Key Economic Releases to Watch Today


Forecast 0.3% vs Previous 0.4%


Forecast 0.3% vs Previous 0.4%


Forecast 3.4% vs Previous 3.2%

CAD, BOC Interest Rate

Forecast 5.0% vs Previous 5.0%



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