Baxia Markets
April 04, 2024

Soft US ISM Services PMI Drives USDCAD Lower to 1.3520

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In the latest developments concerning USDCAD, the currency pair drifted lower to 1.3520 amid a weakened US Dollar during Thursday's early Asian trading hours. The decline was attributed to softer-than-expected US March ISM Services PMI data, which eased to 51.4 from 52.6 in February. Additionally, the surge in crude oil prices to their highest levels since October bolstered the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.

Soft US ISM Services PMI Drives USDCAD Lower to 1.3520

Furthermore, yesterday's weaker-than-expected US ISM Services PMI data for March weighed on the Greenback, exerting downward pressure on the USDCAD pair.

Today's key economic indicators include the USD Initial Jobless Claims, with a forecast of 52.8 compared to the previous 52.6, and the CAD Trade Balance, with a forecast of 0.70B versus the previous 0.50B.

A technical analysis of the 1-hour timeframe chart reveals a bearish outlook for the USD against the CAD. The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) 50 and 200 have formed a death cross, signaling a strong bearish signal. Moreover, the market is trading below the value area of the volume profile, suggesting a downward trend. Support levels are anticipated around 1.3500, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating oversold conditions, potentially signaling nearby support. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signal line is steadying, hinting at a possible market rebound.

In summary, the USDCAD pair remains bearish and is likely to rebound, considering its trading position far below the value area and its proximity to the psychological level at 1.3500. Traders are advised to closely monitor key economic indicators and technical signals for further insights into the pair's trajectory.


Key Takeaways:

  1. USDCAD slips to 1.3520 on softer US Dollar, boosted by rising crude oil prices.
  2. Weaker-than-expected US ISM Services PMI adds downward pressure on USDCAD.
  3. Technical indicators signal bearish trend, with EMA 50/200 death cross.
  4. Market trades below volume profile value area, indicating potential downtrend.
  5. Support seen around 1.3500; RSI suggests oversold conditions, potential rebound.

Key Economic Releases to Watch Today

USD, Initial Jobless Claims

Forecast 52.8 vs Previous 52.6

CAD, Trade Balance

Forecast 0.70B vs Previous 0.50B



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